The 1998 Russian Financial Crisis. Part 3: Political Consequences and Recovery

Political Consequences

The financial collapse resulted in a political crisis as Yeltsin, with his domestic support evaporating, had to contend with an emboldened opposition in the parliament. A week later, on August 23, Yeltsin fired Kiriyenko and declared his intention of returning Chernomyrdin to office as the country slipped deeper into economic turmoil. Powerful business interests, fearing another round of reforms that might cause leading concerns to fail, welcomed Kiriyenko’s fall, as did the Communists.

Yeltsin, who began to lose his hold on power as his health deteriorated, wanted Chernomyrdin back; In a televised address to the nation, Yeltsin said that “heavyweights” such as Chernomyrdin, who was ousted as prime minister in March 1998 for failing to vigorously promote economic reforms, were needed to stem the nation’s financial collapse. Yeltsin also suggested that Chernomyrdin would be named his successor as president when Yeltsin’s term expires in 2000. But the legislature refused to give its approval. After the Duma rejected Chernomyrdin’s candidacy twice, Yeltsin, his power clearly on the wane, backed down. Instead, he nominated Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov, who on September 11 was overwhelmingly approved by the Duma.

Primakov’s appointment restored political stability, because he was seen as a compromise candidate able to heal the rifts between Russia’s quarreling interest groups. There was popular enthusiasm for Primakov as well. Primakov promised to make the payment of wage and pension arrears his government’s first priority, and invited members of the leading parliamentary factions into his Cabinet. Communists and the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia staged a nationwide strike on October 7 and called on President Yeltsin to resign. On October 9, Russia, which was also suffering from a bad harvest, appealed for international humanitarian aid, including food.

Recovery

Russia bounced back from the August 1998 financial crash with surprising speed. Much of the reason for the recovery is that world oil prices rapidly rose during 1999–2000 (just as falling energy prices on the world market helped to deepen Russia’s financial troubles), so that Russia ran a large trade surplus in 1999 and 2000. Another reason is that domestic industries, such as food processing, had benefited from the devaluation, which caused a steep increase in the prices of imported goods.

Also, since Russia’s economy was operating to such a large extent on *barter and other non-monetary instruments of exchange, the financial collapse had far less of an impact on many producers than it would had the economy been dependent on a banking system. Finally, the economy has been helped by an infusion of cash; as enterprises were able to pay off arrears in back wages and taxes, it in turn allowed consumer demand for the goods and services of Russian industry to rise. For the first time in many years, unemployment in 2000 fell as enterprises added workers. Since the 1998 crisis, the Russian government has managed to keep social and political pressures under control, and this has played a vital role in bringing about the current recovery.

Effects on other Countries

Baltic States

The Russian crisis affected Baltic countries more than was expected. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania sank into recession. The figures for 1999 showed a heavy decline in Baltic’s exports to Russia and a significant decline in the growth rates of these economies. Food and beverage as well as processing industries as a whole have suffered the most.

Belarus

Overall, economic activity slowed down substantially in the immediate aftermath of the Russian crisis, with output growth falling from about 8.5 percent in 1998 to 3.4 percent in 1999. Both exports and imports contracted substantially, resulting in a drop in the current account deficit from 6.1 percent of GDP in 1998 to 2.2 percent of GDP in 1999. Externally, exports to Russia, which accounted for more than 60 percent of total exports, fell during the second half of 1998 by 10 percent. Demand for Belarusian products was weak through 1999, showing signs of recovery only during the final quarter, with the revival of economic activity in Russia. Also, in the first quarter of 1999 as compared with 1998, except for investments, all the budget expenditures were smaller (see, Table 3). The biggest cuts were done in national security (1.9 percent of GDP compared with 2.5 percent of GDP in the first quarter of 1998) and social policy (1.5 and 2.4 percent of GDP, respectively) where the expenditures were lowered almost by one third.

Kazakhstan

The Russian crisis was a hard hitting blow to the Kazakh economy. Kazakhstan lost its price competitiveness and its exports were in shambles. On the other hand, cheap Russian goods were flowing into the economy that was killing the domestic industries. There was huge downward pressure on the tenge and their balance of payments had worsened. However the National Bank of Kazakhstan was still holding on to the tenge. In fact, they had spent close to a billion dollars to maintain the level of tenge. Their foreign exchange reserves halved.

Moldova

Moldova received an IMF special mission advising the government on how to cope with the effects of the Russian crisis. Russia bought at that time 85% of Moldova’s wine and brandy and most of its canned goods and tobacco. After the rouble crashed, most Russian importers put deals with Moldova on hold. The Moldovan president Petru Luchinski was quoted as saying that the Russian crisis had cost Moldova as much as five per cent of its GDP. The country’s parliament was discussing a programme aimed at reducing imports and searching for new markets outside Russia.

Ukraine

The crisis cost a lot for Ukraine. It’s national currency, the Hryvnia, devaluated by 60%, domestic prices increased by 20%, the National Bank of Ukraine lost 40% of its gross reserves.

Uzbekistan

In the central Asian state, the government has banned the free unlicensed sales of food, most of which is imported from Russia, as a preventative measure against price rises and panic.

Inkombank was one of the most high-profile casualties of the events of August 1998. Once one of Russia’s largest banks, whose billboards proudly announced its motto “We are for real, we are here to stay”, it closed its doors almost overnight. Their Nizhny Novgorod building, which was one of the city’s symbols of the new Russian capitalism, looks rather shabby in the above picture, taken 2006. But above the name of its current owner, one can still see a not-quite-erased Inkombank logo.

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*Barter is a type of trade that doesn’t use any medium of exchange, in which goods or services are exchanged for other goods and/or services. It can be bilateral or multilateral as trade.